Air Capacity Shifts in July, with New Growth Expected in Late Summer
Arrivals at the San Juan International Airport in July reached 652,000 passengers, about 38,000 less than the same month last year (-5.6%). Year-to-date through July, Aerostar (SJU) has reported 4.1 million passenger arrivals, a -3.4% decrease compared to the same period last year, or approximately 143,000 fewer passengers. In July, arrivals from North America (-5%) and the Caribbean (-8%) and Central America (-12%) have decreased, while combined arrivals from Europe and South America reached 27,010 (+2%).
Passenger volume fell noticeably more than flight frequency. Flights per operation are running fuller in 2025 than in 2026 in some markets, but overall, this points to reduced seat capacity more than reduced demand per flight. July airlift capacity into SJU declined by 39,500 seats year-over-year (-5.2%). The overall decline was driven almost entirely by the removal of 76,100 seats following Spirit Airlines' closure, spread across 13 routes, including Orlando, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Chicago, Atlanta, and Baltimore. Caribbean Airlines' and Sky-High Aviation's smaller exits removed a further 2,400 seats combined. These losses were partially offset by capacity growth at JetBlue (+19,100 seats), American Airlines (+12,100 seats), Avelo Airlines (+5,100 seats, more than doubling its SJU presence), and United Airlines (+4,800 seats).
Seat capacity tracked by Airline Data Inc. suggests clear market stabilization in August, but by September, it's actually reversed. Aligned with demand for budget-friendly trips in the low season, Frontier has added +38,660 seats (+65%), plus JetBlue (+15,004) and American (+10,660), which will more than cover the shrinking Spirit gap and push the market into outright growth. Discover Puerto Rico continues to carefully track route and capacity changes to align with paid media efforts.