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Research Update: Puerto Rico strengthens its position in the global tourism landscape

Friday, July 11, 2025 Article

Travel Intentions Hold Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty

According to the June newsletter edition from industry partner Tourism Economics, the economy is showing clear signs of weakness, but a downturn remains unlikely for now. Rates remained unchanged by the Federal Reserve in June—a signal that inflation risks outweigh recession risks.

Mounting uncertainties impact businesses and consumer confidence. With the largest increases in the effective tariff rate still underway, many unknowns linger.

Consumer confidence took a hit this month, dropping below expectations across several categories, including current business conditions and current and future employment conditions. Companies have absorbed some initial tariffs, putting corporate profit margins under scrutiny and potentially leading to workforce reductions to balance costs.

One bright spot: Recent drops in transportation-related travel prices bode well for travelers, keeping trip intents within reach. Motor fuel prices fell 11.9% in May, versus the same month last year, and airline fares lowered by 7.3%.

Travel as a ‘need’: The American Travel Sentiment Study points to a value-focused shift. Rather than forgo travel, travelers are opting for shorter stays, less retail spending, and destinations closer to home.

Travelers Adjust Their Habits, Not Their Desire to Explore

According to the June edition of the “State of the American Travel” study from Future Partners, Traveler financial sentiment remains mostly stable, as do travel budgets. On average, travelers plan to spend a maximum of $5,507 on future leisure travel over the next 12 months, which is above the previous 12-month rolling average of $4,509.

87% of Americans still report being excited to get out and travel. Still, they've reduced their travel expectations to 3.5 leisure overnight trips in the next 12 months, down from a high of 4 reported back in February.

Expectations for international travel are dropping after a strong growth period earlier in the year, with 42% of American travelers likely choosing destinations outside the U.S., compared to 48% in January.

Expectations that the U.S. economy will fall into a recession this year declined last month, but remain quite high.

There are strong signs travelers are changing travel and spending behavior in response, including 29% choosing more affordable destinations, 26% traveling less frequently, and 25% using rewards programs to save money.

San Juan Cruise Port Restores Capacity for Large-Scale Ships

The San Juan Cruise Port welcomed over 83,000 total visitors in June, a 5% increase compared to last year. Homeporting passengers totaled 11,500, slightly below the volume reflected in June 2024.

Through the mid-year mark, the Port of San Juan has welcomed over 750,000 passengers, 12% fewer than last year.

Part of the decrease in volume can be directly attributed to the cancellations of several ports of call due to damage to Pier 3 in Old San Juan. Fortunately, according to Travel & Tour World, San Juan Cruise Port has officially reopened Pier Three West, marking a significant milestone for both the local cruise industry and travelers. After more than a year of disruptions caused by the closure of this key docking facility, the port is now prepared to welcome Royal Caribbean’s largest vessels back to the Island. The reopening guarantees that large ships, such as the Oasis and Icon Class vessels, can now dock effortlessly at the port”.

According to Cruise Hive, the Icon of the Seas, the largest cruise ship in the world, will return to San Juan before the end of the year, with its next visit scheduled for August 12, 2025, after visiting the southern town of Ponce multiple times this summer.

Puerto Rico Expands Global Reach With New Routes and Emerging Markets

Domestic air capacity into SJU for the third quarter this year reached 1.67 million seats, a decrease of -5%. Orlando still claims the most seat capacity to San Juan with a 3% year-over-year growth; however, seat capacity has been reduced from some top markets including New York, Newark, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and Boston, while Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Detroit and DC have more seats than last year.

International capacity now accounts for 16.5% of the Q3 seat capacity market share, an increase of 3 points since last year. New routes from Costa Rica, 66% more seats from Colombia, 35% more seats from the Dominican Republic, and 31% more seats from Spain will open the Island this season to more International visitors since the end of the pandemic.

According to the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), June 27 and June 29 now rank as the seventh and eighth busiest days, respectively, in TSA history, pushing 2025 to claim six of the agency's top 10 busiest days on record. TSA expects to screen 18.5 million travelers during the upcoming Fourth of July holiday period, which officially starts Tuesday. Sunday, July 6, is projected to be the busiest day as an estimated 2.9 million passengers pass through security checkpoints.

June & July SJU arrival growth is forecasted to be flat with year-over-year increases in August and September. Discount airlines should be posting 2026 schedules in the next weeks.