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Thursday, January 29, 2026 Research

Record arrivals at SJU Airport for 2025

In December, Aerostar reported 651,000 passenger arrivals at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan (SJU), reflecting a -4% decrease compared to the same month last year or approximately -26,000 fewer passengers. These results continue the downward trend observed over the past three months with decreases in arrivals from North America (-4%) and the Caribbean (-3%). In contrast, combined arrivals from Europe, South America, and Central America reached a record 34,500 (+21%).

For Calendar Year 2025, 6.8 million passengers arrived at the San Juan (SJU) Airport, a 3% increase from last year but slightly below the original forecast of 7 million passengers (14 million in combined arrivals and departures). July recorded the highest number of arriving passengers at 691,000, followed by March, which welcomed 659,000 travelers and posted the strongest year-over-year increase at +14%. December ranked third in total arrivals. Since April, the only months showing positive year-over-year growth were August (+4.5%) and September (+1%), aligning with the period of the Bad Bunny residency.

Seat capacity into SJU for the first quarter of 2026 from the U.S. Lower 48 is down by 1.8% overall, driven largely by reductions from Frontier and Sun Country. In contrast, several carriers increased their available seats, including American Airlines (+21%), Spirit (+8%), and United (+7%). Capacity is also expanding in key international markets, with significant growth in seats from Spain (+47%) and Colombia (+7%).

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San Juan Port Consolidates its Role as a Cruise Hub

San Juan Cruise Port welcomed over 272,000 total visitors in December, a 35% increase over last year, with 110 vessels. Homeporting passengers totaled 66,100, the highest this year, while transit passengers surpassed 206,000, ending the year with the best-performing month.

For the calendar year 2025, the Port of San Juan welcomed over 1.59 million passengers, 12% more than last year and the highest number since 2019, thanks to expanded cruise itineraries calling on San Juan, port improvements, and growing ship deployments.

Using AAA’s projected increase in total U.S. cruise passengers (+4.5% from 2025 to 2026) and the Caribbean’s 72% share, demand for Caribbean cruises is also expected to grow by approximately 4–5% in 2026, driven by increase in short Caribbean itineraries, more mega‑ships deployed in the region and higher consumer preference for warm‑weather destinations.

Puerto Rico’s cruise industry is on track for robust, sustained growth through 2027, driven by massive infrastructure upgrades, renewed cruise‑line confidence, major homeport commitments, and favorable global demand trends. The port is transforming into one of the Caribbean’s premier homeporting hubs, with economic impact and passenger traffic expected to climb steadily year after year

Tourism Revenues Reflect Sustained Sector Recovery

The total estimated lodging demand in December, as tracked by STR (Smith Travel Research) and AirDNA as of January 16th, 2026, reached a new monthly record of over 704,000 room nights booked, a 7% increase from last year.

Hotel demand, driven by increased group and government business, as well as seasonal leisure demand, accounted for 386,000 room nights in December, an 8% increase compared to the same period last year. The rental market also grew by 5%, resulting in over 318,000 listing nights booked.

STR estimates indicate that December hotel occupancy rose by 7%, increasing from 72% to 77%, marking the highest level recorded since 2015. In contrast, leisure rental occupancy remains constrained by the ongoing expansion of rental inventory, limiting occupancy growth. Current rental occupancy is trending about 5% below last December’s level, at 57%, representing a three‑point decline from last year.

Year-to-date total lodging demand has reached a record 7.95 million room nights, a 7.8% increase from last year, with hotels slightly up at 4% and rentals increasing 12%. The rental market continues to grow its share accounting for 47% of the total year-to-date lodging demand provided by rentals.

Lodging Revenues Confirm Sustained Recovery

December lodging revenues neared an estimated $205 million, marking a slight 2% increase and setting a new monthly record. Hotels contributed $139 million, a decrease of -1% year-over-year as average hotel rates decreased -8% at $359. The rental segment showed similar growth, generating $67 million, a 2% increase from last year.

Year-to-date lodging revenues captured by STR and AirDNA reached $1.99 billion, an increase of 7% compared to last year. Hotel revenue has increased by 4%, with an average daily rate of $297, totaling $1.26 billion. Meanwhile, rental revenue increased by 12%, generating $733 million at an average rate of $198 and maintaining 37% of the lodging market’s total revenue share.

In looking at the last five years, from hotel revenue collapsing to $320 million in 2020, the recovery since, has been rapid and sustained. By 2025, hotel revenue is nearly four times the 2020 level, showing exceptional resilience and long‑term structural growth in visitor demand. From 2021 through 2025, hotel revenue increased every year, adding roughly $427 million in additional annual revenue despite minimal growth in supply.

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