Research

Mixed Signals for the U.S. Travel Industry in 2026: Stable Jobs, Uneven Travel, and Policy-Driven Uncertainty

According to Tourism Economics’ February update, the U.S. enters 2026 with a steady but cautious economic backdrop. Activity remains solid, and the labor market continues to hold up, even as uncertainty shapes how companies invest and how cost-conscious households spend. Recent trade developments have added another layer of unpredictability: after one tariff avenue closed, the administration introduced a new 10% tariff on imports, with the option to raise it to 15%. While the direct economic impact appears manageable, ongoing policy swings tend to weigh more heavily on smaller businesses, which have fewer tools to adapt than larger firms. In the job market, conditions have stabilized and are expected to gradually improve, though hiring remains a softer spot.

Travel spending continues to follow a K-shaped pattern—overall demand is holding steady, but performance varies widely by segment. Higher-income travelers, a strengthening business-travel rebound, and a busy calendar of major events are bright spots. Hotels reflect this dynamic: upscale and luxury segments are outperforming, while midscale, economy, and independent hotels are still working their way back to pre-pandemic levels.

International inbound travel remains a weak point, with 2025 marking a step back and leaving the U.S. well below 2019 volumes. Some regions declined sharply—particularly Canada—while others helped soften the blow with modest gains. Despite the slow recovery and a shrinking global market share, there is meaningful upside ahead. Mega-events, especially the 2026 World Cup, are expected to provide a powerful boost not only to host cities but also to nearby markets and major air gateways.