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This is How Bookings are Pacing This High Season

Thursday, November 20, 2025 Research

Passenger Numbers in SJU Increased by 4% between January and October

Year-to-date, SJU has welcomed 5.67 million passengers, pacing 4% over last year and continuing its record-breaking trend. North American arrivals account for 84.8% of total traffic, tying the lowest levels seen since 2018, driven by expanded international route capacity. Notably, year-to-date arrivals from South America reached 127,000 (+53%), Europe 91,000 (+23%), and Central America 99,000 (+18%).

In October, Aerostar reported 428,000 passenger arrivals at San Juan International Airport (SJU), representing a slight 1.5% decrease compared to the same month last year, resulting in approximately 6,500 fewer passengers. Arrivals from North America totaled 358,000, representing a 2% decrease, while arrivals from the Caribbean decreased by 15%, reaching 39,000, primarily due to Silver Airways market exit and other shifts in demand. Meanwhile, October saw significant increases in arrivals from Europe 10,500 (+48%) and South America with 12,000 (+36%).

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Hotel Demand Grows in October

The total estimated lodging demand in October, as tracked by STR (Smith Travel Research) and AirDNA, reached a new monthly record with 495,000 room nights booked, a 13% increase from last year.

The hotel segment outperformed rentals this month thanks to large citywide programs and demand from the transient business segment, producing overall over 300,000 room nights, about 16-17% above last year. The rental market also experienced growth, with a 7% increase, resulting in 189,000 listing nights booked.

Year-to-date total lodging demand has reached a record 6.5 million room nights, a 9% increase from last year, with hotels slightly up (3%) and rentals increasing 16%. The rental market continues growing market share, with 46% of the total year-to-date lodging demand provided by rentals.

Overall, for the U.S. Market, STR indicates softening hotel performance throughout October, with all key indicators—occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR—declining. The weaker results are attributed to a tougher 2024 comparison, government shutdown-related travel disruptions, and general market slowdown.

The Most Profitable October

Estimated October lodging revenues reached approximately $107 million, marking a 9% increase and possibly setting a new monthly record. Hotels contributed $69 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, and above October of 2022, which held several rescheduled programs from Hurricane Maria and the pandemic. The rental segment also surged, generating $39 million, a 7% rise compared to last year.

Revenue increases reflected growth in volume, as average hotel rates decreased to $223 (-7%) as more group and transient government business was added to the sales mix this month. October hotel RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) reached $137 (+6%), while rental RevPAR was $81 (-5%). Year-to-date, hotel RevPAR is $210 (+2%) while rentals are $126 (+2%).

Year-to-date lodging revenues are nearing $1.7 billion, an increase of 10% compared to last year. Hotel revenue has grown by 5%, with an average rate of $294, reaching $1 billion. Meanwhile, rentals have increased by 18%, generating $680 million at an average rate of $224.

Booking Pace anticipates Double-Digit Growth

In looking at the next six months, hotel and rental reservation activity remains strong. As of November 2nd, Amadeus Hospitality reports November hotel occupancy at 68%, which is 15% higher than the same time last year. December is showing even stronger performance, pacing 19% ahead year-over-year. All segments, groups, transient leisure and business are pacing ahead of last year every month.

Hotel occupancy for the last week of the year is tracking very high demand with year-over-year occupancy pacing 22% ahead of last year and New Year’s Eve reservations pacing 44% ahead. The first quarter of next year is currently pacing at 32.3% hotel occupancy, a 31% increase over the same period last year, with group occupancy up 37% and transient bookings up 27%.

Short-term rental activity continues to show robust growth. According to AirDNA, as of November 3rd, every upcoming month is expected to see an increase in booked listing nights. November currently has 5% more listings nights booked while December is performing better with 17% more nights. Demand for the first quarter is also very strong, with 27% more listing nights booked at this time.

We are monitoring the impacts from flight delays/cancellations that may have been caused by the Federal Government shutdown. These, if any, may be reflected in actual reservation performance for bookings within the early to mid-November travel window.

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