What Do Bookings Signal for the End of 2026?

Thursday, September 10, 2026 Research

Puerto Rico’s Lodging Mix Shifts as Rental Supply Surges

Since AirDNA started monitoring the Island’s market in 2015, Puerto Rico’s lodging supply mix has shifted decisively toward short-term rentals. Hotel supply increased 16.7%, from 5.06 million nights in 2019 to 5.91 million in 2025, while rental supply expanded 143.2%, from 2.69 million to 6.55 million nights. Rentals first exceeded hotels on an annual basis in 2024 and widened their lead to 643,620 nights, or 10.9%, in 2025. Through July 2026, rental supply reached 4.18 million nights, up 6.4% from the same period in 2025 and 22.8% above hotel supply, which was essentially flat, down 0.2% to 3.40 million nights. Some growth is expected through 2027 with the opening of more flagged properties around the Island.

The five-month rental supply pace report (available from September 2026 to January 2027) indicates that listing nights available across Puerto Rico averaged 3.4% above last year during that period. Growth is strongest in the Central region, averaging 14.2%, followed by the North Region at 10.4% and Vieques at 9.8%; South, West, and Culebra also show solid average gains of 8.0%, 7.6%, and 6.4%, respectively. The East region is growing more moderately at 2.6%, while the city of San Juan, which accounts for nearly a quarter of the Island’s supply, is the only region below last year on average, down 0.8%, with declines in September, December, and January.

According to the U.S. Travel Association, the U.S. Hotel supply growth is expected to remain very limited, increasing just 0.4% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, with U.S. hotel construction currently at its lowest level in 12 years. Analysts project U.S. GDP growth to improve from 2.3% in 2026 to 2.7% in 2027, while inflation is expected to ease from 3.2% to 2.4%, creating a favorable environment for hotel demand. Group and corporate travel continue to strengthen, providing a more stable source of business, while international inbound travel remains uneven across markets. The U.S. hotel industry's 2027 outlook remains positive, as consumer spending continues to hold up despite inflation, supported by income growth outpacing rising prices.

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Travel Sentiment Retreats as Travelers Continue Taking Leisure Trips

According to Future Partners' State of the American Traveler for August 2026 (published August 11), traveler sentiment retreated after July's sharp rebound, even as actual travel behavior held firm. The share of households reporting they're financially better off than a year ago eased to 34.0% from 35.6%, and the average annual leisure travel budget fell to $5,340 from June's $6,022. Recession expectations eased for a second straight month to 43.8%, yet half of travelers (50.6%) still say they're watching spending closely. Despite the softer mood, 56.2% took an overnight leisure trip in the past month, unchanged from July and above last year's level, though the forward booking calendar thinned, with 16.2% now reporting no trips planned through 2027, up from 12.2% last month.

Booking windows continue to shorten, a seasonal pattern typical of this time of year, 24.6% of travelers now plan a week-long trip just one to four weeks in advance, up from 22.7% last month and 17.6% in February. Preference is swinging from air toward road travel at the fastest clip the tracker has recorded, with road-trip preference climbing to 35.1% while air preference fell to 39.0%. AI-assisted trip planning is now mainstream, used by 30.6% of travelers in the past year (up from 23.9%), and YouTube has overtaken Facebook and Instagram as the top social platform for travel research. Cost remains the dominant barrier to travel, with gas-price deterrence nearly doubling year-over-year to 32%.

Lodging Pace Softens This Fall, Then Gains Strong Momentum

In looking at the future lodging pace from Amadeus and AirDNA, Hotel occupancy shows a soft start to the fall booking period before strengthening into year-end. As of August 23, 2026, September's committed occupancy is 34%, down 10% year-over-year and 8% from the 2024/25 comparison. October follows a similar pattern at 29% committed occupancy, down -14% YoY mostly due to a smaller group base compared to last year.

The trend reverses starting in November, with committed occupancy at 34% and now positive both YoY (+4%) and against 2024/25 (+7%). That momentum builds through December (30% committed, +20% YoY, +18% vs. 2024/25) and January 2027 (22% committed, +23% YoY, +17.4% vs. 2024/25), the two strongest months in the outlook on a year-over-year basis, signaling a strong start to the Industry’s high season.

Short-term rental demand, measured by listing nights booked (as of August 24, 2026), tells a complementary story. Booking volume peaks in September at 118,471 nights but is essentially flat year over year (-1%). It then dips to 72,444 nights in October before climbing through the rest of the period with year-over-year growth accelerating each month steadily: 25% in October, 37% in November, 38% in December, and 50% more booked rental nights for January compared to the same time last year. Regionally, the San Juan area is pacing ahead of all other regions for December/January, with 54% and 77% more rental nights booked, respectively.

Puerto Rico’s Air Connectivity Strengthens With Capacity and New Routes

According to Airline Data Inc. August reporting, Puerto Rico’s scheduled air capacity from the U.S, Spain, and Colombia for September through December 2026 totals 2.36 million seats, an increase of 212,604 seats, or 9.9%, compared with the same period in 2025 across all 47 reported routes. San Juan remains the principal gateway with 2.15 million seats and 8.2% growth, while Aguadilla rises 23.1% to 150,690 seats, and Ponce increases 54.8% to 60,502. The results point to broad expansion across all three destinations, with faster percentage growth at the smaller airports.

The largest capacity gains are concentrated in several San Juan routes. Orlando grows 18.4%, adding 62,667 seats to reach 403,123; Philadelphia rises 47.8%, adding 45,672 seats; Jacksonville surges 373.7%, adding 22,782 seats; and Miami increases 13.4%, adding 20,671 seats. These gains offset declines from New York to San Juan, down 18.4% or 39,294 seats, and Providence, down 86.0% or 14,904 seats, as well as reductions from Dallas/Fort Worth (-14.2%), Houston (-10.2%), and Detroit (-26.5%).

New service is an important contributor to the 2026 expansion, adding 48,156 seats across six routes., Fort Lauderdale to Ponce adds 19,428 seats, followed by Buffalo to San Juan with 8,748, Norfolk to San Juan with 8,424, Richmond to San Juan with 6,642, and starting in November, new Aguadilla service from Lakeland and New Haven, each with 2,457 seats. Conversely, San Antonio to San Juan and New York to Ponce, around 10,497 seats combined were eliminated.

What Do Bookings Signal for the End of 2026?

Puerto Rico’s Lodging Mix Shifts as Rental Supply Surges ​

Travel Sentiment Retreats as Travelers Continue Taking Leisure Trips

​Lodging Pace Softens This Fall, Then Gains Strong Momentum​

Puerto Rico’s Air Connectivity Strengthens With Capacity and New Routes​

Puerto Rico’s Lodging Mix Shifts as Rental Supply Surges

Lodging Pace Softens This Fall, Then Gains Strong Momentum

Puerto Rico’s Air Connectivity Strengthens With Capacity and New Routes